Beijing Urban Construction (600266): Carry forward the rhythm of the shed and make progress
The core point of view is to achieve revenue of 133 in 2018.
800 million, at least -4.
7%; net profit attributable to mother 12.
300 million, at least -15.
5%; expected average ROE exceeds -1.
81 up to 5.
67%; it is planned to distribute a cash dividend of 2 for every 10 shares.
4 yuan, 2 shares for every 10 shares, the dividend rate is 30.
Affected by the carry-over scale of development business and the advancement of shed reforms, the overall performance was lower than expected.
Forecast EPS EPS 2019-2021.
34 yuan (previous value was 2019, 2020 1).
39 yuan), maintaining the “overweight” level.
Real estate development carry-over, growth in land growth and growth slowed performance. The company’s lower-than-expected performance in 2018 was mainly due to (1) the carry-over of development business. In 2018, the company’s real estate development business achieved revenue of 128.
0 ‰, a decrease of 5 per year.
8%, carry forward gross margin 33.
2%, an increase of 2 per year.
3 units; (2) The carry-over of some high gross profit projects in the current period caused a significant increase in land growth of 97% to 14.
9 trillion, leading to an increase in the proportion of taxes and surcharges to operating income4.
75 single to 12.
6%; (3) Long-term equity investment, investment income from acquisition and sale of financial assets, etc. decreased 41.
7% to 1.
40,000 yuan, the proportion of equity investment performance decline.
In 2019, the company adjusted its accounting standards, and some of the sold financial assets were classified as changes in fair value measurement and included in the current profit and loss. The impact of equity investment on performance may be increased.
In 2018, the company realized sales recovery of 153.
700 million, a decrease of 12 per year.
0% of the projects on sale are mainly located in Beijing, Tianjin, Qingdao, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Hainan. Among them, Beijing, Tianjin, and Hainan have converted to small cycle highs. The sluggish market boom has led to faster sales growth.
In 2018, the company planned to build about 60 new land storage projects through the open market.
240,000 square meters, an increase of 78 in ten years.
0%, the total price is 60.
9 trillion, a decrease of 9 a year.
9% of the newly added projects are mainly located in Beijing, Tianjin, Qingdao, Anhui Huangshan, etc.
At the end of 2018, the company had not carried forward a total of 451 land reserves.
First-level development, shed reform projects are advancing steadily, and equity investment welcomes good development potential. By the end of 2018, the company 杭州夜网论坛 had 11 tent reforms and first-level development projects with a total planned investment of about 1023 trillion., Kangzhuang and other shed reform projects are progressing as planned.The company’s external equity investment involves banks, financial holdings, securities, funds, real estate, satellite navigation and other fields.
During the reporting period, it held the shares of four listed companies of Guoxin Securities, Jinzhou Bank, Zhongke Shuguang, and CITIC Construction Investment. In 2018, it achieved cash dividends1.
In addition, each holds space technology for the 21st century4.
1%, Huaneng Capital 2.
9%, as well as Beijing Science and Technology Park, China Science and Technology Investment, Guoao Investment and other stocks, are converted into science and technology board construction speed up, the company’s equity investment business ushers in good development potential.
First- and second-level development + diversification of equity investment, maintaining the “overweight” rating. In view of the 2018 performance expectations and sales growth decline, insufficient short-term development business can carry forward resources is expected to lead to the expansion of revenue scale. EPS 2019-2021Is 0.
34 yuan (previous value was 2019, 2020 1).
With reference to 10 times PE estimates of comparable companies in 2019, taking into account that the company’s sales end has benefited from the first- and second-tier structural recovery, the stable income space of shed reform projects and the long-term development space of equity investment business are better.11-12 times, with a target price of 10.
76 yuan (previous value 9).
44 yuan), maintaining the “overweight” level.
Risk warning: First-tier cities continue the current strict decomposition system; extension of the development cycle of primary development and shed reform projects increases the pressure on the company’s capital chain.