CSI 300 target at 4400 points
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Source: Daily Economic News Every reporter Wang Haizheng Every editor Xie Xin Nomura Oriental International Securities Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Nomura Oriental International), affiliated to Nomura Holdings, is one of the first domestic foreign-funded securities brokers since the policy was liberalized.At the end of the month, the CSRC was formally authorized to approve the establishment.
The public approval of the CSRC showed that Nomura Oriental International has a total of 3 shareholders, of which Nomura Holdings holds 51% of the shares, Oriental International (Group) Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Huangpu Investment Holdings (Group) Co., Ltd. each hold 24 shares.
On December 20, 2019, Nomura Oriental International officially opened.
On January 10, 2020, Nomura Oriental International released the first research report since the company opened in Shanghai. The theme is the outlook for A-share investment strategies in 2020.
Looking forward to the A-share market in 2020, Gao Ting, head of Nomura Oriental International Research Department, said that he did not consider the A-shares’ increase in 2019 to be excessive. In 2020, the target point of the CSI 300 index is 4400 points, and it is estimated that the first quarter of 2020The opportunity for the market to rise is higher.
In the future, we still need to pay attention to structural opportunities. On January 10, Nomura Oriental International released the first research report since the opening of the company in Shanghai. The theme is the outlook for the 2020 A-share investment 杭州桑拿 strategy.
In 2019, the major indexes of A-shares have achieved two-digit gains. Looking forward to the A-share market in 2020, Gao Ting, head of Nomura Oriental International Research Department, said that he does not consider the A-shares’ increase in 2019 to be excessive.The target of the CSI 300 Index is 4400 points.
In addition, Gao Ting said that in the first quarter of 2020, the market has a higher chance of upward movement.
“When the global economy was very poor in July and August of 2019, the world ‘s short-term interest rates were continuously reduced. It is expected that the first quarter to the second quarter of 2020 will be the time when the probability of economic stabilization appears to break, so it is expected that this period of time can focus on the cycle sector andPerformance of the automotive 杭州桑拿网 industry.
“According to the opinion of the Nomura Motors team, it is expected that the breakthrough growth rate of passenger car sales in 2020 will be repaired to 5.
1%, focusing on the improvement in the evaluation of car companies driven by the recovery in passenger car sales growth.
According to “Daily Economic News” reporter observation, many investors in 2019 have earned the index without making money.
In 2019, A-shares are still a clearly differentiated market. In the past few years, the market has been relatively popular, and the technology sector has led the 2019 market.
This structural differentiation has actually begun in 2010.
According to Nomura Oriental International, since 2010, the excess returns of the consumer, technology, and healthcare industries relative to the CSI 300 have been significant.
”Assuming that China’s economy is still undergoing transformation in the future, investment will need to find relevant structural opportunities.
Gao Ting said.
From the perspective of Nomura Oriental International, the structural themes and stock selection logic under the medium and long-term trend of A shares include: 1. Investment opportunities of industry leaders brought by industrial upgrading and concentration enhancement; 2. Sustained use of institutional investorsAs a result, the institutional characteristics of the market will tend to become obvious.
Under conservative estimates, about 460 billion incremental funds will enter the market in 2020; 3, the rise of new consumption, such as manufacturers with brand value, leading e-commerce, 5G mobile phones, etc .; 4. local development, such as the Greater Bay AreaTriangle, Wuhan Optics Valley and other regional development themes, local SOE reform topics (the urgency of local SOE reform is higher than that of central SOEs).
This year’s RMB exchange rate pressure adjustment. At present, MSCI has not announced the latest A-share split schedule, so there are market opinions that MSCI may suspend the expansion of A-shares in 2020, which may also affect the size of northbound funds flowing into A-shares in 2020.
In this regard, Gao Ting pointed out: “I have been working in a foreign institution before. In fact, foreign capital ‘s perception of the A-share market did not occur after the A-shares were assigned the MSCI index. Prior to this, richness began to affect A-shares.Investors too.
“According to selected statistics, since 2020, Northbound funds have been a net inflow of A shares on each trading day.
The day with the largest net inflow in a single day was January 2 and the net inflow on that day was 101.
4.7 billion yuan, the net inflow of northbound funds on January 10 was 29.
5.8 billion yuan.
According to the reporter’s understanding, some foreign institutions entered the pace of A-shares in 2019 due to pressure from exchange rates and exchange rate changes.
So how will the changes in the RMB exchange rate in 2020 affect foreign inflows into A shares?
In this regard, Gao Ting told the reporter of “Daily Economic News” that from several factors, the pressure on the US dollar in 2020 may lead to some. “We judge that the global economy will stabilize in 2020 compared to 2019, and the momentum for stabilizationNot from estimates, it is expected that the contribution to the global economy in 2020 will be more emerging markets. If so, the relative performance of the global economy in 2020 will focus on emerging markets, so the US dollar is not expected to be so strong in 2020.
In addition, there have been recent reports that the US deficit will exceed $ 1 trillion in 2020. If a country’s deficit is too large, it will put pressure on its currency.